Metaculus

Metaculus is a community where people can collectively make accurate predictions about future real-world events by pooling their collective knowledge, expertise, and intelligence. The site provides a trustworthy forecasting and modeling foundation for forecasters, decision-makers and the general public.

Metaculus covers four areas:

• Biosecurity: Understanding infectious disease and preparing for future pandemics to improve global health.
• AI Progress: Forecasting the future of artificial intelligence technology and its effects on society.
• Nuclear Security: Quantifying risks around the world to keep us safe and secure for a better future.
• Climate Change: Forecasting long-term temperature and weather pattern changes caused by human activity.

The site has a range of features:

• Forecasting Tournaments: Compete against others to make predictions about real-world events, timelines and effects to win prizes for accuracy. Tournaments are focused on specific subjects and have different prize pools.
• Research & Updates: Partners use Metaculus forecasts to better understand complex challenges and decisions.

Metaculus is designed to help people reason and coordinate better on issues of global significance. The site's principles include community, respect for knowledge and truth, public accountability and trust, and transparency and understanding.

Anyone can sign up to use the site to make their own forecasts, discuss with others and help build a community that fosters better decision making.

Metaculus is for anyone looking to better understand and navigate the complexities of global challenges, and it could be of use to individuals, organizations and communities.

Published on June 25, 2024